By: Chaima Chihi & euronews
Published in •Latest update
The Hebrew newspaper “Jerusalem Post” quoted two knowledgeable people as saying that Israel and the United States believe that Mojtaba Khamenei does not act as the actual leader of Iran, and that senior commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are the ones who make the basic decisions inside the country.
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“A relative leadership vacuum”
According to what the newspaper reported, the Revolutionary Guard and its commander, Ahmed Vahidi, are now exercising a direct influence on political decision-making in Iran, in light of a more complex governance structure and overlap between security and political institutions.
Vahidi took over the position to succeed Mohamed Pakpour, who was killed on February 28, 2026, at the beginning of the military escalation.
In the same context, Iranian affairs expert Nati Tovian told the Hebrew newspaper that the leaders of the Revolutionary Guards “are not the type who accept concessions or are seen as making concessions.”
On the other hand, US President Donald Trump said that Iran “does not know who its leader is,” adding that it is “in a state of complete confusion.”
According to the New York Times, the late Iranian leader Ali Khamenei held absolute authority over war and peace issues and negotiations with the United States, while his son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, does not play the same role.
The newspaper also described Mojtaba Khamenei as a “mysterious figure,” noting that he has not appeared publicly nor has his voice been heard since his appointment last March, while a group of leaders in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have emerged as actual decision-makers in the files of security, war, and diplomacy.
According to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health condition, Mojtaba, despite his injuries, “still has a present mind and continues to follow up,” after undergoing surgeries on his leg, and waiting for the installation of a prosthetic limb, in addition to undergoing surgery on one of his hands.
The officials added that “his face and lips were severely burned, making it difficult for him to speak,” noting that he would later need plastic surgery.
In this context, Trump said that the war, along with the assassination of a number of Iranian leaders and their security institutions, led to “regime change,” but the New York Times newspaper saw that the Iranian regime had not fallen.
The Revolutionary Guard dominates the governance structure?
According to the New York Times, the Revolutionary Guard has become the most influential force within the ruling structure, especially in light of the absence of Khamenei’s public appearance since the beginning of the war, and the absence of any direct audio recordings of him, despite the official media continuing to publish written messages attributed to him.
The newspaper indicates that the Revolutionary Guard, which was established in 1979 to protect the Islamic Revolution, gradually expanded its influence by infiltrating senior political positions, owning shares in vital economic sectors, and controlling intelligence services, in addition to building relationships with armed groups in the Middle East that share “hostility” to Israel and the United States.
However, during Ali Khamenei’s rule, the Revolutionary Guard remained largely subject to his authority in his capacity as the religious authority and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, as the former guide gradually empowered it until it became a fundamental pillar of the ruling system.
In a related context, in recent days, an attempt was made to organize a new meeting between US Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf with the aim of reaching an agreement between the two countries.
However, Tehran refused to participate in these talks, stressing that it would not enter into any negotiations as long as the naval blockade remained in place.
According to information reported by the London-based opposition channel Iran International, the Iranian negotiating team led by Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi received instructions from circles close to Khamenei’s office preventing discussion of the nuclear file.
The report indicated that Araqchi considered that this directive makes participation in the negotiations useless, and practically represents a “death sentence” for the negotiating process with all its repercussions.
In the same context, Nati Tovian told the Gerazolem Post, “The Revolutionary Guard, especially its leaders who manage huge economic empires, cannot afford to make political concessions for fear of losing internal support.”
He added that other state institutions, including Parliament and the Presidency, “do not have real authority in decision-making,” explaining: “They say that the most that President Masoud Pezeshkian can decide is the color of the garbage collection trucks. The president is nothing, absolutely nothing.”
He concluded by saying, “The possibility that any party outside the Revolutionary Guard is the one managing the political decision in Iran, especially with regard to negotiations with the United States, is almost non-existent.”
