The run-up to the Brexit referendum in 2016 saw economic forecasters predict a large and persistent shock to UK economic performance – of around a 10% reduction in GDP – in the event of a ‘leave’ vote. The following years saw many studies that attempted to quantify the actual losses but these tended to find smaller impacts of around 2%-5% of GDP. Now, though, new studies with more comprehensive data to work with, are again finding higher impacts in the 5% to 10% range. This note presents the results of some recent analyses on the subject.
