“This critical recognition was missing from government information so far and needed to be done,” noted Bullock, one of the 81 experts consulted for the report. “It says that the situation we’re in is being taken seriously.”
Prepared by the Joint Intelligence Committee, which advises ministers and sets priorities for MI5, MI6, and GCHQ, the report lays bare that wildlife populations declined by a staggering 73% in 1970–2020.
It acknowledges the ‘realistic possibility’ that ecosystems that are critical for UK national security will ‘start to collapse by 2030 or sooner’ as a result of climate change and other drivers. And it warns of ‘catastrophic implications’ for the UK, including food insecurity.
While the report lays out problems, it does not specify what to do about them, argued Bullock. He pointed to a single recommendation: “protecting and restoring ecosystems is easier, cheaper and more reliable” than developing and scaling untested technologies.
But that crucial message is being undermined, warned Bullock: “Government actions are going against the only recommendation in the report.”
He cited the recent weakening of biodiversity planning rules and the slashing of climate aid programmes as incompatible with the intelligence chiefs’ assessment.
“It’s important that the Government publishes an action plan for how they will respond to the risks presented,” he said.
The assessment identifies six ecosystems as critical for UK national security, including the Amazon and the boreal forests.
Bullock cautioned that this approach, “downplays other systems that are very critical to us, including those of primary concern for our national security – the depleted soils and ecosystems within the UK”.
“If we act on climate change and biodiversity loss today, we could be on a very good path in ten years, but the longer we leave it, the more difficult this becomes,” said Bullock. “We know what to do to adapt the UK system. We can hit the ground running.”
The full assessment has not been made public. Instead, the environment department released a 14-page version on January 20.
The assessment follows on the heels of the National Emergency Briefing, held in Westminster Central Hall in November 2025. To help ensure the film is screened near you, see: nebriefing.org/the-film.
