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What’s driving the day in London.
By EMILIO CASALICCHIO
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Good afternoon from the press seats of the House of Commons, where MPs are debating the Rwanda deportation legislation. This is Emilio Casalicchio back in situ. Thanks to the excellent Andrew McDonald for covering while I was off shirking.
TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Conservative Rwanda rebels are meeting to hammer out their moves ahead of crucial amendment votes.
— There is still little expectation of Downing Street conceding to their demands, despite ongoing negotiations.
— Attention is turning to whether the government could be defeated in a crunch overall vote tomorrow.
— The boss of Fujitsu apologized over the Horizon postmasters scandal and promised the tech firm will contribute to compensation.
— China hawk Liz Truss pushing to expedite exports from a firm in her constituency to China hasn’t gone down too well.
TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
THE CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF APALACHIN: Conservative MPs from the so called “five families” of Rwanda bill rebels are meeting in committee room 17 right now to war game their approach to votes due to begin in the next hour or two. It’s like a reboot of the 1950s Apalachin meeting of mafiosi — so let’s see if the whips bust in like the police did then.
Last ditch vibes: The would be rebels have been locked in talks all day with Downing Street via top aide Will Tanner in the hope the government might concede to some of their demands and back amendments aimed at toughening up the deportation plan. A spokesperson for Rishi Sunak refused to rule out concessions during a briefing for journalists this morning — but there’s still little hope either side will move.
One to watch: One MP said the central talking point between the two sides was the “Rule 39” late night injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights that have a habit of stopping deportation planes taking off. There was still hope late on that Tanner might come back with a fresh offer from the PM — but none had appeared as this email went out. The votes are expected to begin not long after 6 p.m, with the amendments to be voted on still to be announced at the time of writing.
Still hopeful: A rebel organizer said the group was hoping “until the last minute that the government recognizes these amendments meet its legal tests, and will make it easier for them to enact the Rwanda plan.”
Nevertheless: “There’s no sense of movement from No. 10 on all the amendments,” one MP said. “It feels like for the third time in a row attempting to legislate for this we’re not going to hit the golf ball hard enough.” Expect charges that rejecting the amendments are a political choice, rather than a practical or legal one, and a dismissal of colleagues who are concerned about the illegal migration issue.
Fighting talk: The PM’s spokesperson insisted the bill was in the sweet spot of being as strong as it can be while keeping to Britain’s international obligations. There’s a chance Downing Street offers further measures like the shuffling around of judges to tackle asylum cases (announced in a written statement this afternoon.) But such measures aren’t expected to move the dial with rebels.
Indeed: Rebels aren’t interested in much other than legal changes. New Conservatives ringleader Miriam Cates told Radio 4 this morning the judges proposal was proof the government is expecting more and more legal claims as a result of the bill in its current form — an argument Downing Street pushed back against.
Which all suggests … not much can be done to appease the rebels who will vote for their amendments before a repeat performance tomorrow. None of the amendments are expected to pass.
And then … attention will turn to the third reading vote — a chance for MPs to block the legislation outright. Labour will vote against it, Playbook PM can confirm, so rebels do have a chance to shoot the bill down if enough of them are mobilized. Playbook PM hears the Conservative whips are getting the willies about the third reading vote. But the MPs are split on what to do.
For example: Conservative MP Simon Clark said on Twitter he was not “fucking around” and will “vote against it if the legislation isn’t amended. Simple as that.” He set out his thoughts in more detail and with fewer swears in this ConHome piece. He added that if the main parties don’t solve the small boats issue it will embolden extremists in Britain. Robert Jenrick told Sky News he was also prepared to vote against the bill tomorrow. But fellow Rwanda enthusiast Priti Patel urged colleagues to back the bill in its current form.
Learning to count: Various journos are attempting to put a number on those willing to vote against the government at third reading. The Tele’s Dominic Penna reckons he has confirmation from 13 — not quite the 28-ish (depending on various factors) needed to defeat Sunak. At the moment, at least.
Come on, lads: Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride told Times Radio MPs should “unite behind our clear plan to get the deterrent in place.”
Going well: Tories were sniping at each other during the debate on the amendments in the Commons this afternoon. When Robert Buckland argued for his One Nation proposals, Jenrick and John Hayes were among those intervening to criticize his position. Hayes later moved to chat one-to-one with Buckland to insist there were no hard feelings.
Also in the Commons: Jenrick insisted Rwanda would accept a tougher bill. “Unless the goalposts have been shifted by the government, I see no reason why the prime minister and the minister couldn’t accept these amendments and enable us to strengthen this bill once and for all,” he argued. Clark told MPs: “This is our last chance to act this parliament.”
Not in the Commons but still sticking an oar in: Former PM Boris Johnson (who first brought forward the Rwanda plan) urged the government to adopt the rebel amendments in a post on Twitter. But the last time he urged rebels to go over the top and vote against Sunak (on the Windsor Framework) he was left humiliated.
The only people having a good time during all this … are Conservative assistant chairs Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith, who Downing Street confirmed are allowed to vote for rebel amendments without losing their jobs. “They’re not part of the government, they’re part of the Conservative Party, so it wouldn’t apply to them,” the PM’s spokesperson confirmed this afternoon.
LOST IN THE POST SAGA
CLAMBERING OUT THE FUJITSU CRATER: The European boss of Fujitsu knew what he needed to do when he appeared at the business committee this morning for a grilling about the Post Office scandal.
Couldn’t have said it fast enough: “Fujitsu would like to apologize for our part in this appalling miscarriage of justice,” Paul Patterson told MPs. “We were involved from the very start. We did have bugs and errors in the system. And we did help the Post Office in their prosecutions of the sub postmasters. For that we are truly sorry.”
And there’s more: Patterson said there was a “moral obligation” for Fujitsu to contribute to compensation for sub postmasters who were convicted of fraud due to errors in the Horizon IT software the firm provided to the Post Office. But he refused to talk numbers. “We expect to sit down with government to determine our contribution,” he said.
That will be at least some solace for … former MP James Arbuthnot, who has long campaigned on the scandal and told the committee earlier in the session Fujitsu should have a role in the “redress that the sub postmasters need now.”
Slow redress: The committee heard from former sub postmaster Alan Bates, the dogged campaigner who ITV revolved its recent drama around. He said the compensation process was too slow and “frustrating,” noting that people are “suffering” and have died before receiving their dues.
Here’s an idea: Former Postal Affairs Minister Paul Scully told BBC Radio 4’s World at One show if he had his time again he would have “taken the compensation process in-house and run it from government.” Clip here.
Efficient governance latest: Meanwhile, the government admitted it has no idea how many contracts Fujitsu has been awarded since 2010. Might be worth a subscription to the Tussell contracting database?
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
CALL FOR CAM QUESTIONS: My POLITICO colleague Anne McElvoy wants suggested questions for an interview she’s landed with Foreign Secretary David Cameron in his Davos chalet. Submit them here. Her Power Play podcast is publishing daily from the Swiss resort this week. Some POLITICOs get all the best jobs.
GONE DOWN LIKE A CUP OF THE COLD PROVERBIAL: Liz Truss demanding special treatment for a firm in her patch wanting to export landmine disposal equipment to China (revealed by POLITICO’s Graham Lanktree this morning) hasn’t gone down too well with her pals in Taiwan.
Fairweather China hawking: A ruling Democratic Progressive Party lawmaker told my POLITICO colleague Stuart Lau it was “unthinkable” Truss would make the request. “This is totally unacceptable, and our diplomats should reconsider our future working relationship based on this information,” the person said, asking to remain unnamed.
Also getting stuck in: Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael also isn’t impressed, while veteran Labour spinner Damian McBride takes aim at Kemi Badenoch and her attitude to FOI. It’s a stonking scoop from Graham, check it out here.
FIGHTING BIBLICAL FIRE WITH FIRE: Labour has published the so-called campaigning “bible” it’s sending to all its candidates, and which LabourList had overnight. The document argues Liz Truss blew the Conservatives’ reputation for economic competence.
SPINNING SALARIES: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said it was “heartening” to see wages growing for the fifth month in a row — although ONS figures from this morning show that growth slowing. Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall focused instead on the in-work rate still being below pre-Covid levels, and the huge numbers not working due to long-term sickness.
LATE LIKE A TRAIN BUT … this amusing/tragic/infuriating tale (delete as appropriate) from Novara last night on Avanti rail bosses joking about government subsidies despite running woeful services is well worth a look. “Roll-up, roll-up, get your free money here,” is a genuine quote from an Avanti presentation slide.
HIS OWN GB NEWS SHOW AWAITS: Labour MP Barry Gardiner has made a 40-minute documentary about leasehold housing to coincide with the committee stage of the leasehold and freehold bill this week. The full film should be out later this month.
**YOUR ONLINE INVITATION: This week POLITICO takes the Davos community for a party with a special guest. You’re invited to watch live and share your thoughts using #POLITICODavos**
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
CAPTION CONTEST ETC: This excellent pic from Cabinet this morning was doing well on Twitter.
GAVIN’S LATEST BEEF: Former Conservative MP and Downing Street aide Gavin Barwell continued to row with critics on Twitter, this time going toe to toe with the Sun’s Harry Cole over the mess the Tories are in.
LOVE THIS TYPO: Conservative ex-chair Jake Berry noted that after almost two decades and three kids he has more “winkles!”
AROUND THE WORLD
IN THE RED SEA: A Greek owned vessel was hit by a missile heading north through the Red Sea to Israel with no reported injuries — Reuters has the details. The U.S. Navy meanwhile seized weapons said to have been sent by Iran to resupply Yemen’s Houthi rebels last week — Al Jazeera has further information.
IN IRAQ: Iraq vowed to take Iran to the U.N. Security Council after the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have attacked an Israeli “espionage headquarters” in the Kurdistan region. The U.S. State Department condemned the attacks as “reckless,” adding they “undermine Iraq’s stability” — more in the Guardian.
IN AMERICA: Donald Trump returned to court in New York City for a defamation lawsuit brought by writer E. Jean Carroll — the Independent has live updates and my Stateside colleagues have a helpful explainer.
AT DAVOS: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the World Economic Forum in Davos that Ukraine couldn’t defend itself against Russia on its own, pleading with attendees “we need you in Ukraine to build, to reconstruct, to restore our lives” — the New York Times has more.
Russia’s view: Russia’s Ambassador to the U.K. Andrey Kelin told LBC’s Andrew Marr the current policy of sending troops and money would result in a “failed state in Ukraine,” adding Defense Secretary Grant Shapps’ comments this week about the perilous state of the world were an “extreme exaggeration of the situation.”
IN NORTH KOREA: North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s constitution will drop its commitment to unification with South Korea, saying Soul was its “principal enemy” — the FT has a write-up.
TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) lead on the Post Office scandal committee hearing.
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Business and Trade Committee Chair Liam Byrne … National Audit Office chief Gareth Davies.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Former Communications Director for Donald Trump’s transition team Bryan Lanza (6.30 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Tory MP Tom Hunt (5.05 p.m.) … Labour MP Ian Lavery (5.20 p.m.) … Public Accounts Committee Chair Meg Hillier (6.45 p.m.) … Onward’s Sebastian Payne and the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe (both 7 p.m.).
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Tory MP Charles Walker.
Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): Author Nick Wallis.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Russian Ambassador to the U.K. Andrey Kelin (6 p.m.) … former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon (6.30 p.m.).
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): One Nation Conservatives Chair Damian Green … New Conservatives Co-Chair Miriam Cates … former Downing Street Director of Communications Guto Harri … Labour Together Director Josh Simons.
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Tory MP John Penrose … Labour’s Bell Ribeiro-Addy … unaffiliated peer Edward Faulks … human rights lawyer Jacqueline McKenzie.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour MP Kate Osborne … UNICEF Communications Specialist Tess Ingram.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The Spectator’s James Heale and Deltapoll’s Joe Twyman … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): Sebastian Payne and the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar.
WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
BEERS WITH BYRNE: Liam Byrne’s business and trade committee is hosting a networking drinks from 6 p.m. in the Attlee Suite. Invites needed.
DRINKS AND DRAINAGE: The Lib Dems bid farewell to sewage supremo Ed Molyneux, who was behind years worth of their stories about filth being poured into British rivers and seas. His leaving do will feature a chocolate sewage-themed cake, of course.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
THE PRICE IS NEVER RIGHT: Inflation stats for December are published at 7 a.m. from the Office for National Statistics.
WAR WATCHER: The ballot to elect a new chair of the defense committee opens at 11 a.m. and closes at 2.30 p.m. Details of the two candidates are here.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit for questions on Northern Ireland from 11.30 a.m. before PMQs at noon, then the second session of the Rwanda deportation legislation.
OVER IN THE ALPS: Foreign Secretary David Cameron will be in Davos chatting Ukraine and the Middle East. Trade Minister Dominic Johnson is there too.
ALSO IN DAVOS: Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a speech to business leaders in the mountain resort.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
PACKED LUNCH OR PARL LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Corn fried battered hotdog with sweet potato wedges, sweetcorn, baby spinach and ranch dressing; arancini risotto balls with lentil and pomegranate salad; sesame pork in black bean sauce with green pepper, bean shoots and noodles … The Debate: Slow roast lamb on tomato bread with cheese and onion sauce; Indian style seared sea bream with coriander rice, sag aloo and curry cream; kale and kidney bean chimichanga with carrot and pineapple salsa … Terrace Cafeteria: Smoked haddock and leek pie; bacon loin steak with clapshot and gravy; mushroom stroganoff with rice.
Speaking of lunch: More than £450,000 has been plowed into pest control to combat mice and moths in the Palace of Westminster since 2020, reports the Sun’s Martina Bet. The Lib Dems obtained the figures.
And speaking of the Lib Dems: The party has backed helping Sophie Ellis-Bextor classic “Murder on the Dancefloor” top the charts. The Tele’s Dominic Penna got the scoop.
SPOTTED: Former Cabinet minister Matt Hancock living his best life in the Lords canteen by lunching with Test and Trace czar Dido Harding and chatting to a bishop.
GET WELL SOON: The Mail on Sunday’s Brendan Carlin is off work recovering from an op.
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT … the Portcullis House exhibition detailing the life stories of Holocaust survivors, which will be up for the rest of this month.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: In the New Statesman, Freddie Hayward has a piece on what the Labour approach to defense might look like if the opposition wins power.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On January 16 1924 Stanley Baldwin resigned as prime minister after losing an effective confidence vote in the House of Commons in the wake of a snap election on the issue of protectionist tariffs. On the same date in 2019, Theresa May won a vote of no confidence in the Commons by 325 votes to 306.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Rosa Prince.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporters Noah Keate, Bethany Dawson and Andrew McDonald, and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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